Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are lowered 51 million bushels with
reduced carryin and lower forecast winter wheat production. Beginning stocks are lowered
40 million bushels with a 10-million-bushel increase in food use and a 30-million-bushel
increase in exports for 2011/12. The increase in 2011/12 food use reflects higher-thanexpected
flour milling during the January-March quarter as reported by the North American
Millers’ Association. Exports are increased based on the strong pace of U.S. shipments
during the final weeks of the old-crop marketing year.
U.S. all wheat production for 2012/13 is projected at 2,234 million bushels, down 11 million,
with lower forecast winter wheat production and small reductions in forecast durum wheat
production for Arizona and California. Winter wheat production is forecast 10 million bushels
lower with reductions for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Soft White Winter wheat. The largest
production declines are in the HRW states of Nebraska and Colorado, but higher production
for Oklahoma is partly offsetting. With reduced supplies and higher expected prices, feed
and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 41
million bushels lower. The projected range for the 2012/13 season average farm price is
raised 10 cents on both ends to $5.60 to $6.80 per bushel. This remains well below the
record $7.25 per bushel projected for 2011/12.
Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are lowered 7.0 million tons with beginning stocks lowered
1.5 million tons and world production expected down 5.5 million tons. Higher 2011/12 global
consumption, fueled by increased global trade, reduces carryin for 2012/13. World
production for 2012/13 is lowered reflecting reduced crop prospects in several exporting
countries including Russia, EU-27, Turkey, and the United States. Russia production is
reduced 3.0 million tons due to a continuation of spring dryness in key winter wheat
producing areas and indications of crop development problems resulting from winter freeze
damage. EU-27 production is reduced 1.0 million tons with reduced acreage in Germany,
Poland, and Spain, only partly offset by higher expected yields in France and Bulgaria.
Production is also lowered 1.0 million tons for Turkey as winter frost damage and disease
problems reduce yields across the central growing areas on the Anatolia Plateau. Output is
reduced 0.2 million tons for Syria as yield prospects decline for non-irrigated wheat in the
Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 is lowered 4.6 million tons with reduced prospects for
wheat feeding and food use. Wheat feeding is lowered for EU-27, Russia, and Turkey.
Larger corn supplies and increased corn feeding more than offset the reduction for EU-27.
Wheat food use is lowered for India, Bangladesh, and Indonesia. Increases in food use for
Morocco and Turkey are partly offsetting. Global wheat exports are reduced 1.6 million tons