higher projected imports for China. Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels mostly due to
stronger domestic soybean meal use. Soybean ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at
175 million bushels, down 35 million. With reduced supplies for 2012/13, soybean exports
are projected at 1.485 billion bushels, down 20 million. Soybean crush is also projected
lower due to reduced domestic soybean meal use. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected
at 140 million bushels, down 5 million from last month.
Soybean, meal, and oil price projections for 2012/13 are unchanged this month. The U.S.
season average soybean price is projected at $12.00 to $14.00 per bushel. Soybean meal
and oil prices are projected at $335 to $365 per ton and 52.5 to 56.5 cents per pound,
respectively.
Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 470.8 million tons, down 0.7 million from
last month, mainly due to lower soybean and cottonseed production. China’s soybean
production is reduced 0.5 million tons due to lower area as producers shift planting decisions
toward corn. Brazil’s cottonseed production is also reduced due to lower area planted to
cotton as world prices have declined in recent weeks. Other changes include reduced
rapeseed production for EU-27, increased rapeseed production for Russia, increased
sunflowerseed production for EU-27, and reduced cottonseed production for Australia and
Egypt. Brazil’s 2011/12 soybean production is increased 0.5 million tons to 65.5 million while
Argentina soybean production is reduced 1 million tons to 41.5 million.
